Medicaid Topline Memo
TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FR: DAVID FLAHERTY
MAGELLAN STRATEGIES
RE: VIRGINIA MEDICAID EXPANSION SURVEY AMONG 6 COUNTIES TOPLINE
RESULTS
Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the topline results of a 1,463N autodial survey of likely general election voters in 6 counties in the state of Virginia. The interviews were conducted July 10th – 14th, 2013. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.56% at the 95 percent confidence interval. This survey was weighted based upon likely general election voter demographics.
Tl. Are you registered to vote?
Yes……………………………………………………………………………………..100%
T2. How often do you vote? Do you vote in almost every election, in major elections for Governor and President, only in Presidential elections, or do you not vote at all?
Almost every election………………………………………………………81%
Major elections for Governor and President………………16%
Presidential elections only……………………………………………….3%
T3. Do you consider yourself to be a Republican, a Democrat or something else?
Republican…………………………………………………………………………35%
Democrat……………………………………………………………………………34%
Something else………………………………………………………………….31%
T4. As you may know, in November Virginians will elect a new Governor. If the election for Governor were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate Ken Cuccinelli, the Democrat candidate Terry McAuliffe or the Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis?
Ken Cuccinelli……………………………………………………………………43%
Terry McAuliffe…………………………………………………………………43%
Robert Sarvis……………………………………………………………………….6%
Undecided/No opinion……………………………………………………..8%
T5. Thinking now about Medicaid in Virginia…
Which of the following statements comes closer to your point of view: “Some people say that Medicaid is a good program that provides essential healthcare benefits to the deserving poor.”
WHILE…
“Other people say that Medicaid is a flawed program that wastes a lot of money, has problems of fraud and abuse, and is in severe need of reform.” Which statement comes closer to your point of view?
Medicaid is a good program…………………………………………..51%
Medicaid is a flawed program……………………………………….40%
Unsure/No opinion……………………………………………………………9%
Strongly believe Medicaid is a good program…………….37%
Somewhat believe Medicaid is a good program………..14%
Strongly believe Medicaid is a flawed program…………26%
Somewhat believe Medicaid is a flawed program…….14%
T6. In 2012, Virginia spent roughly $3 billion on Medicaid. As you may know, there is a specific provision in the new Obamacare law that would permit the state of Virginia to expand Medicaid coverage to uninsured Virginia residents whose income level is up to 138 percent of the current federal poverty level. The federal government would cover 90 percent of the increased costs permanently, with the state of Virginia paying 10 percent or an additional $1,326 billion dollars over the next 10 years, according to the non-partisan Kaiser Foundation.
Knowing this, do you favor or oppose the state of Virginia expanding Medicaid coverage to all uninsured state residents with household income levels up to 138 percent of the current federal poverty level?
Favor……………………………………………………………………………………48%
Oppose………………………………………………………………………………..41%
Unsure…………………………………………………………………………………..8%
No opinion……………………………………………………………………………3%
T7. According to Chmura Economics & Analytics, if the federal government returns its cost share of Medicaid back to the current level of 50 percent in 2020, the increase in state Medicaid spending from 2020 to 2022 would hit $1.8 billion per year.
Knowing this, do you favor or oppose the state of Virginia expanding Medicaid coverage to all uninsured state residents with household income levels up to 138 percent of the current federal poverty level?
Favor……………………………………………………………………………………43%
Oppose………………………………………………………………………………..45%
Unsure…………………………………………………………………………………10%
No opinion……………………………………………………………………………2%
T8. The Virginia Department of Medical Assistance Services says that Medicaid expansion could add 271,000 new participants statewide. The non-partisan Kaiser Foundation estimates that expanding Medicaid could add 407,000 new recipients to the program statewide. Knowing how these estimates vary by 33 percent, do you favor or oppose the state of Virginia expanding Medicaid coverage to all uninsured state residents with household income levels up to 138 percent of the current federal poverty level?
Favor……………………………………………………………………………………46%
Oppose………………………………………………………………………………..43%
Unsure/No opinion………………………………………………………….11%
As you may know, any expansion of Medicaid will have supporters and opponents. I’m now going to read to you a list of the arguments being made by those opposing expansion of Medicaid. For each argument, please tell me whether the argument is very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not very convincing as a reason to NOT expand Medicaid. Let’s get started.
T9. If expanded, Medicaid would become an unreasonably large program, covering as many as one in five (l-in-5] residents of the state.
Very convincing………………………………………………………………..33%
Somewhat convincing……………………………………………………..21%
Not very convincing…………………………………………………………37%
Unsure/No opinion……………………………………………………………9%
T10. Expanding Medicaid would just give the federal government more power and control over our lives.
Very convincing………………………………………………………………..40%
Somewhat convincing……………………………………………………..13%
Not very convincing…………………………………………………………40%
Unsure/No opinion……………………………………………………………7%
Til. We can’t count on the debt-ridden federal government’s contribution to Virginia Medicaid to last forever, so in the future Virginia taxpayers will be left to foot the bill for all the new Medicaid recipients added.
Very convincing………………………………………………………………..43%
Somewhat convincing……………………………………………………..18%
Not very convincing…………………………………………………………34%
Unsure/No opinion……………………………………………………………5%
T12. Medicaid should not be expanded until the waste, fraud, and abuse in the program is cleaned up.
Very convincing………………………………………………………………..50%
Somewhat convincing……………………………………………………..19%
Not very convincing…………………………………………………………28%
Unsure/No opinion……………………………………………………………3%
T13. The cost of expanding Medicaid would leave less money for other needed state services and programs, like education, public safety and environmental protection.
Very convincing………………………………………………………………..34%
Somewhat convincing……………………………………………………..27%
Not very convincing…………………………………………………………34%
Unsure/No opinion……………………………………………………………5%
T14. Expanding Medicaid would allow too many able-bodied young people to get insurance, even if they just choose not to work to provide for their own healthcare needs.
Very convincing………………………………………………………………..37%
Somewhat convincing……………………………………………………..19%
Not very convincing…………………………………………………………39%
Unsure/No opinion……………………………………………………………5%
T15. Because there is so much disagreement among experts on the costs of expanding Medicaid, we shouldn’t rush into any expansion until we have a better handle on the financial consequences.
Very convincing………………………………………………………………..45%
Somewhat convincing……………………………………………………..18%
Not very convincing…………………………………………………………32%
Unsure/No opinion……………………………………………………………5%
T16. Which of the following pays for most of your own personal healthcare expenses?
Employer paid health care plan…………………………………….53%
Health plan purchased individually……………………………..13%
Medicare…………………………………………………………………………….19%
Medicaid……………………………………………………………………………….2%
Out of pocket payments not under a plan…………………….5%
Other……………………………………………………………………………………..8%
T17. In the six months before you signed up for Medicaid coverage, were you mostly uninsured and had no private insurance, had private insurance through your employer, had private insurance that you bought on your own or did you have another type of government health care program? (Asked only to those respondents who say they are on Medicaid)
Mostly uninsured and no private insurance………………36%
Private insurance through employer…………………………..32%
Personal private insurance…………………………………………….11%
Another type of government health care program…..16%
Unsure/No opinion……………………………………………………………5%
T18. Please tell me if you agree or disagree with the following statement, government should provide free health care to all citizens?
Strongly agree……………………………………………………………………24%
Somewhat agree……………………………………………………………….23%
Somewhat disagree………………………………………………………….18%
Strongly disagree……………………………………………………………..32%
Unsure/No opinion……………………………………………………………3%
T19. Concerning your own political views, would you say that you are generally more conservative today than you were two years ago, OR are you generally more liberal today than you were two years ago, OR are you about the same as you were two years ago?
More conservative than two years ago………………………..29%
More liberal than two years ago……………………………………13%
About the same as two years ago………………………………….57%
Unsure/No opinion……………………………………………………………1%
T20. What is the highest level of education that you have completed?
Some grade school……………………………………………………………..4%
Some high school………………………………………………………………..5%
Graduated from high school…………………………………………..17%
Completed some college…………………………………………………22%
Graduated from college…………………………………………………..24%
Completed some graduate or professional school……28%
Unsure/No opinion……………………………………………………………0%
T21. Including yourself, how many adults, age 18 or older, live in your household?
1……………………………………………………………………………………………21%
2 ……………………………………………………………………………………………50%
3 or more……………………………………………………………………………21%
No opinion……………………………………………………………………………8%
T22. How many adults in your household work outside of the household?
1 ……………………………………………………………………………………………32%
2 ……………………………………………………………………………………………34%
3 or more……………………………………………………………………………13%
No opinion………………………………………………………………………….21%
T23. How many infants and children, under 18 years of age, live in your household today?
1 ……………………………………………………………………………………………19%
2 ……………………………………………………………………………………………12%
3 or more……………………………………………………………………………..6%
No opinion………………………………………………………………………….63%
T24. Which of the following best describes your current employment status?
Employed full time…………………………………………………………..45%
Employed part time…………………………………………………………11%
Unemployed or temporarily laid off………………………………5%
Retired………………………………………………………………………………..27%
Homemaker…………………………………………………………………………6%
Student………………………………………………………………………………….2%
Unsure/No opinion……………………………………………………………4%
T25. For statistical purposes, are you a man or a woman?
Female…………………………………………………………………………………55%
Male……………………………………………………………………………………..45%
T26. Which of the following age groups applies to you?
14%
16%
24%
23%
23%
18-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+….
T27. For statistical purposes only, what is your race? Press 1 if you are white, press 2 if you are Hispanic or Latino, press 3 if you are black or African American, press 4 if you are another ethnic group.
White…………………………………………………………………………………..78%
Black/African American………………………………………………….10%
Hispanic/Latino………………………………………………………………….8%
Another ethnic group………………………………………………………..4%
T28. For statistical purposes only, what was the total income of everyone in your household last year before taxes?
$20,000 or less………………………………………………………………….10%
$21,000-$30,000………………………………………………………………9%
$31,000-$50,000…………………………………………………………….14%
$51,000-$70,000…………………………………………………………….14%
$71,000-$100,000………………………………………………………….16%
$101,000-$125,000………………………………………………………….9%
$126,000 or more…………………………………………………………….13%
Unsure/No opinion………………………………………………………….15%
Survey Methodology
This survey was conducted using automated telephone touch-tone technology. The sample used for this survey was randomly drawn from a Virginia voter file. The survey response data was weighted based upon voting demographics from general election voters in 6 counties in the state of Virginia. The 1,463 interviews were conducted on July 10th – 14th, 2013. Three attempts were made to interview each household in the sample. This survey has a margin of error of 2.56% at the 95 percent confidence interval.
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